There is alot of federal election opinion polls out there with different results, while some fraction favours the Liberals, some favour the conservative though the average of all the polls give the conservative less than 1 point lead over the Liberals, there is big loophole that gives room for uncertainty.
The opinion poll could be wrong, If one of the polls gets its figure wrong, it will definitely affects the outcome of the average polls.
Even at this, there’s one thing common to most of the polls, the federal election will be close. According to Abacus Data, 86% think the election will be close while 14% think one party will win by a lot.
When asked who they would prefer to be prime minister after the election, 34% picked Mr. Trudeau (down 1 since the start of the campaign), 30% prefer Mr. Scheer (down 3), while 20% prefer Mr. Singh (up 7). 11% would prefer Ms. May as Prime Minister and 4% Mr. Bernier.
According to Nanos poll, when they asked to rank top two current local preferences for Prime Minister from the federal parties leader [First ranked response]
- In Ontario, 37% prefer Mr. Trudeau to 30% for Mr. Scheer and 20% for Mr. Singh.
- In Quebec, Mr. Trudeau has a 21-point lead over Mr. Scheer with Ms. May and Mr. Singh tied for third at 14%.
- In BC, it’s a three-way tie with Mr. Trudeau at 29%, Mr. Scheer and Mr. Singh at 27%, respectively.
It is clear the election will be a close one. Contrarily to the average national poll, Justin Trudeau will pull a edge if the Liberal’s base turn up.